Saturday Preview and Predictions

Outside of the Army-Navy game, the college football regular season has come and gone. That means this Saturday is the first of many in the coming months where college hoops takes over. Here's the first of many guides to Saturday viewing with some probable wrong predictions thrown in free of charge for those with degenerate streaks and inclinations.

• Florida vs. Cincinnati: This should still be the best game of the day despite the fact that both teams are limping a bit after losses. Florida has gone from a potential Final Four contender, to a team that lost to a school I have never seen play despite the fact that I could walk to their gym in ten minutes (shout out to the Loyola Ramblers). Meanwhile Cincy got beaten down by Xavier in the Crosstown Classic. Even though the Bearcats boast a better offense than they've had in previous seasons, they still look to win with their top ten defense. Florida is going to try and run and shoot threes in transition, while Mick Cronin's squad will look to be physical and muck things up in the halfcourt. (Prediction: Cincinnati is favored by 1.5, but I think Florida goes back to showing why it was so hyped after its performance at the PK Invitational. Florida 85, Cincinnati 80). 

•  Minnesota at Arkansas: Minnesota got off to an 8-1 start but then surprisingly didn't show up in its loss at Nebraska earlier this week. Meanwhile Arkansas is 6-2 with two losses where it got beat by more than 20. The Gophers will look to pound the ball inside and let Jordan Murphy cook, while the Razorbacks will lean on their three senior guards to give them most of their offense. With Reggie Lynch averaging over four blocks per game, Arkansas is going to need Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon to hit threes with shots at the rim being more difficult. (Prediction: Minnesota is more balanced and won't get rattled in a hostile environment with the steady hand of senior Nate Mason. Arkansas is favored by 3.5, but I like the Gophers to win. Minnesota 74, Arkansas 67). 

• Wichita State at Oklahoma State:  The Wheat Shockers already own a road victory over a Big 12 opponent with their win last Saturday against Baylor. Oklahoma State is 7-1, but did most of its damage against inferior competition. Wichita State is clicking right now, and the combination of Shaq Morris and Darral Willis will be too much for the Cowboys interior to handle. Look for Zach Brown to lock down Jeffrey Carroll, forcing Mike Boynton's unit to have to get points from secondary options. (Prediction: Wichita State will cover the 5, and do so with ease. Wichita State 85, Oklahoma State 69). 

•  UCLA at Michigan: Neither of these teams really are all that great defensively, so at the risk of sounding really simple and obvious, it's going to come down to who makes shots. Michigan isn't off to that great of a start in that department thus far, so getting Moe Wagner or Duncan Robinson to make multiple threes could determine the outcome. UCLA is finely free from the Ball Family drama, and could have the best two players on the floor with the inside-outside duo of Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh. The significance is magnified here because neither the Pac 12 nor Big 10 look especially good right now, meaning this could be one of the last chances for either team to boost its respective resumes. (Prediction: I'm going to take another road underdog here, because UCLA is just more talented. Michigan is favored by 6.5, but take the Bruins and the points. UCLA 75, Michigan 72). 

                                                                (rolltide.com)

• Alabama at Arizona:  This could be the best game of the day for two reasons. Collin Sexton and Allonzo Trier. Sexton is averaging 20.8 PPG, while Trier is averaging 22.0.If high-scoring guards aren't your jam, then the secondary clash in the paint also could provide just as much in determining the outcome. Can the combo of Donte Hall and Daniel Giddens stop Deandre Ayton? Ayton is averaging almost 20 points on 60 percent shooting from the floor, but Hall (2.8 blocks per game) and Giddens (1.6) can alter and erase shots at an elite level. Arizona can show that its performance in the Bahamas was a fluke with another win here, while Alabama has a chance for a road win that will probably be worth a bunch in March if it has a strong season in the SEC. (Prediction: While being a 9 point favorite is probably a bit much, I like the Wildcats here. I don't think they'll cover the number, but they will win. Arizona 68, Alabama 62). 

 
 
 

Random Ranker: Thoughts on Six Potential NCAA Tournament Teams that Played Friday

Friday night isn't usually the home for a seemingly random tripleheader all held at the same venue. Last night however, there were three games at the Staples Center in Los Angeles that featured six teams with a combined record of 44-8. All of these teams have legitimate prospects for being in the field of 68, yet aren't exactly household names. Taking advantage of the fact that I had a rare Friday night off, I watched all three games and here is how I would rank the teams based off of what happened Friday, and what the teams have done in the first month of the season.

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 1. TCU: The Horned Frogs are a serious threat to not only make their first NCAA Tournament of this century, they also could be a factor in the Big 12 race. There's a bunch to like here, but point guard play has to be at the top of the list. Jaylen Fisher and Alex Robinson both do a nice job getting everyone involved and getting into the paint. Kenrich Williams will become a household name by the end of the season with his do-it-all type numbers, and I'd be lying if the fact that Jamie Dixon's squad has someone named Vladimir Brodziansky blocking shots and hitting threes didn't make me a fan. I'm all on board for the "Cousin Vlad" experience all season.

2. Oklahoma: This is the part where I rant and rave about Trae Young and the insane numbers he's put up only eight games into his college career. This article over at CBS gives one a nice introduction to the young point guard that is becoming a superstar, so I'll just stick to data. He already has three games where he's gone for more than 30 points, and three games with more than 10 assists. The college Steph Curry comparisons might be a bit premature, but Young gives the Sooners an absolute weapon that can dish and also pull from 30 feet on any given possession. There's a gaggle of other shooters, and some leftover experience from the team two years ago that made a Final Four. Expect Oklahoma to be ranked soon, and expect some classic Big 12 games with Young battling with senior guards like Devonta Graham and Jevon Carter once the calendar flips to 2018.

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 3. Arizona State: Bobby Hurley has taken a team that hasn't been relevant since the James Harden days to an undefeated start in his third season at the helm. There's some questions about how the Sun Devils are going to defend teams with size, and some defensive questions in general. But three senior guards that can all get out in transition, distribute, and shoot with deep range shows why this is the sixth most efficient offense right now per KenPom. If freshman Romello White can give ASU a post presence, this is a sleeper in a wide-open (potentially crappy) Pac 12.

4. Nevada: I've been high on the Wolf Pack for a while now, but it takes more than ten games to fully get things right from a chemistry perspective with so many transfers playing pivotal roles. They looked kind of disjointed offensively both times I've seen them play, and right now the Martin twins are taking too many tough shots without spreading the ball around. They're still the favorite to win the Mountain West however, and they linger as a legitimate Sweet 16 threat if they get the right matchups come March.

5. St John's: No one is really talking about the Johnie's right now when discussing the Big East, but this is really solid team that will only get better when Marcus Lovett comes back. Shamorie Ponds is simply tasked with having to take way too many tough shots right now without Lovett to take some of the pressure off. Being in the middle in the Big East will be good enough to go dancing, and the Red Storm have the pieces to finish there, if not higher. They have good athletes and have been outstanding forcing turnovers and protecting the rim early on. This is another squad incorporating multiple transfers, so check back in about a month for some improvements.

6. USC: There are more questions than answers right now with the Trojans as they've surprisingly gotten off to a sluggish 4-3 start after dropping three games in a row. Expectations were high, but players with legitimate NBA aspirations are not playing like pros. USC is shooting only 45.6 percent on two-point shots in its first seven games, which doesn't add up when Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu should be able to score in the post at will. Add in the fact that D'Anthony Melton hasn't played yet because of the NCAA investigation and you get a team with multiple questions right now.

If I had a Vote: My Top 25 Rankings

As a writer, nothing would make me happier than one day receiving the honor of being one of the voters that gets to submit a top 25 ballot each week. I could get made fun of, yelled at by various fanbases, and just get an unlimited amount of vitriol sent my way by the internet masses. While a top 25 at this early point in the season is pretty meaningless, here's a go at what my rankings look like at this point in the season. And in honor of one of my favorite baseball writers, the format is similar to former Grantland and current CBS writer Jonah Keri. Keri writes his baseball rankings every week at picks out certain teams to write about within the rankings. At this point I've seen almost every team play at least once, but I've seen some more than others and thus have more to go with.

25-21:

25. Texas (5-2)

24. Arizona St. (7-0)

23. Nevada ( 8-0)

22. Baylor (5-2)

21. Texas Tech (6-1)

Baylor might fall out of the regular top 25 after dropping games at Xavier and at home against Wichita State this week. This is a solid squad with loads of length which makes this a potential top ten defense. They can switch from zone to man-to-man, and have good athletes. The problem however is a lack of depth that will be felt with Terry Maston being out with an injury until January. They now only really play seven guys, so problems with foul trouble might force the Bears to exclusively play zone. The loss of Johnathan Motley is being felt with Jo Lual Acuil having to be more of an offensive option. JLA shot almost 57 percent on 2's last season, but is getting tougher looks and shooting only 50 percent on 2's this season due to having to (or choosing to) take tougher shots. Lual-Acuil is best as a complimentary piece scoring at the rim of on putbacks on the glass. With the lack of depth, Tristan Clark and Nuni Omot need to share more of the scoring load until Maston comes back.

20-16

20. Seton Hall (7-1)

19. Purdue (8-2)

18. TCU (8-0)

17. West Virginia ( 7-1)

16. Cincinnati (7-1)

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Cincinnati got Macura'd on Saturday when it lost a mere 3.4 miles from its campus at Xavier. Macura only scored nine points, but managed to get Cincy's Coach Mick Cronin to try and fight him after the game, which I can't remember ever seeing in my time watching college hoops. The Bearcats racked up an undefeated record against inferior opponents, then just got beat up by Xavier in a game that was only reasonably close. This team is better than the Cincy teams of the past that just beat people up and won rock fights. However, it gave up 1.19 point per possession Saturday and basically were late getting out to Trevon Bluiett all day when he shot from deep. The lack of intensity from everyone that isn't the coach is slightly concerning, especially in a tilt against one's biggest rival.

15-11

15. Xavier (7-1)

14. Minnesota (8-1)

13. UVA (8-0)

12. Gonzaga ( 7-1)

11. North Carolina (8-1)

                                                                (SI.com)

 I've gotten better over the years at writing about North Carolina without sounding like a complete fan boy or homer. So I'll make my best effort here. The loss against Michigan State notwithstanding, this team is much better at this point of the season than I imagined. Although I didn't think things would be as bleak as the 2009-10 season where the Tar Heels went from national champs to the NIT (shout out to Larry Drew and the Wear twins), I had low expectations. But things like Luke Maye becoming a GD superstar averaging a double-double, the freshmen big men (none of whom were top 100 recruits) playing reasonably well, and Kenny Williams becoming the second coming of Donald or Shammond Williams slipped my mind. Now with Cameron Johnson coming back by ACC play, this could be a second weekend NCAA Tournament team.

10-6

10. Miami ( 7-0)

9. Kentucky ( 7-1)

8. Notre Dame ( 7-1)

7. Texas A&M ( 7-0)

6. Florida ( 5-1)

Kentucky is still a mystery to me. I'm in the camp of thinking that they aren't that good, and that the SEC grind might cause the Wildcats to be a potential 8-9 seed with 10-11 losses heading into the tournament. Others laud the potential, especially on the defensive end once the freshmen figure things out. Starting on December 16, things will become a little more clear with games against Virginia Tech, UCLA, and Louisville. It would not surprise me at all if they lost at least two of these heading into SEC play.

5-1

5. Wichita State ( 6-1)

4. Villanova (8-0)

3. Michigan State (7-1)

2. Kansas (7-0)

1. Duke (10-0)

Wichita State has had six players lead the team in scoring in seven games. I say that to illustrate the fact the Shockers are much deeper than I imagined. When your third guard can score 31 points in a game, then get shut out in a win on the road against a top 25 team, you know that this is a team with multiple options and players that are capable of going off. And they don't even have Markus McDuffie yet. The Baylor win on Saturday showed with Connor Frankamp, Landry Shamet, Shaq Morris, and Darral Willis all scoring inside and outside that the weaponry makes this a Final Four contender.